BothAndBlog Forum

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Thus, to expand a bit, ergodic theories of history (ET) imply modest alterations of a causal process do not change the final outcome substantially, whereas butterfly theories (BT) imply even very tiny alterations in a causal process produce dramatically different results. — John Gill

I'm only superficially familiar with Ergodic Theories, and what little I know comes from the Information Philosopher instead of sci-fi authors. As far as I can tell, Ergodicity is equivalent to Enformy in my own theory of Enformationism. Both terms refer to an observed, but often denied, trend in evolution that works counter to Entropy to bring order out of chaos, and patterns out of randomness. When applied to history, these ideas may be related to Hegel's causal force that he called the "spirit of history". FWIW, here are some links to related theories of Negentropy, or to directional evolution.


Ergodicity : https://www.informationphilosopher.com/ ... icity.html

Enformy : http://blog-glossary.enformationism.info/page8.html

Extropy : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropianism

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussi ... of-history

From a different perspective these ideas constitute interesting theories of history. — John Gill

In my brief online review of Ergodic theories, I noticed that they are mostly applied to abstract mathematical concepts, such as Riemann Manifolds and Markov Chains, that are far from my everyday concerns. Other than the sci-fi stories you mentioned, are you aware of any applications of Ergodicity to human cultural history? Are there any examples of historical trends and transformations that have been interpreted in terms of Ergodic Theory and the Butterfly Effect?

I suspect that history could be analyzed as a form of statistical thermodynamics, in the sense that changes (historical "energy") flow from Hot to Cold; such that, if cultural hot & cold spots could be defined ergodically, then future trends in history could be predicted mathematically --- at least in the short term. This might be presented graphically as a flow chart, and understood metaphorically like Hegel's "Spirit of History" following a zig-zag course from positive Thesis (hot) to negative Antithesis (cold), and thence to moderate Synthesis (lukewarm).

As a test case, the flow of Socialist/Communist sympathies relative to Capitalist/Fascist hot spots in Europe, Asia, and South America could be tracked as they flipped back & forth (e.g. Russia and China) after WWII. What butterfly flaps caused those flips from Communist Prole-tocracies to Capitalist Oligarchies? Capitalism and Communism seem to be powerful social organizing forces that at first appear to be unstoppable as they spread out from Hot Spots. But it takes only a few generations for them to flip-flop, or zig-zag, if you prefer..

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussi ... of-history

I think the intended application to history is something like the question of whether WWII would have still happened had Hitler died in infancy. If a strong attractor is involved in the human cultural system of the time, then the answer is probably yes. If Hitler was a butterfly, then no. — Pfhorrest

Ha! I suspect that Hitler was more of a Strong Attractor than a Flitting Butterfly. His "Make Germany Great Again" (MGGA) campaigns were obviously attractive to patriotic Germans after the humiliations of WWI, and his Aryan Myth was appealing even to many comfortable Americans & Britons, feeling besieged by pro-melting-pot Liberals. However, Churchill and Roosevelt were unpredictable butterflies flapping stubbornness and altruism. Perhaps we could put numbers on those leader's political baggage to make their contributions to bringing "order out of chaos", and "justice out of injustice" more objective.

I'm sure that any historical applications will have to begin with retrospectives. But eventually, once the definitions and inter-relationships are refined, the Ergodic theory should be able to put some numbers on trends projected into the near future. If so, then history would be able to look forward, and provide substance for our intuitive expectations. For example : is Trump enough of a Strong Attractor to swing the politically-divided US toward the stability of Fascism? Is his ergodic influence positive or negative, from the perspective of oligarchs or plebians?

It might be that one could begin with a narrow account of a relatively isolated State and make some sort of historical sense. — mcdoodle

Surely, some economists and historians have already begun to computerize social progress or regression.

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Probably, I should not have used the word "ergodic" and would not have done so were it not Lem's appellation. — John Gill

Lem's association of Ergodicity with History was probably based on a philosophical, rather than mathematical, definition. Mathematical theories of dynamics-in-the-abstract may be too far removed from our experience of the dynamics-in-practice we call "history". But the Information Philosopher has applied the abstruse notion of thermodynamic Entropy and Enformy (my term) to the personal values of progress and retrogression in human culture. That's why your original post struck a chord with me. Like Hegel, and many others, I see evidence of a progressive "force" or trend in natural and cultural evolution. But a mathematical definition of that positive path within randomness might make the concept of an upward arc in history more palatable to skeptics, who view Randomness and Entropy as all-powerful. It could also help to explain how highly-organized Life & Mind emerged from the erratic path of evolution.


Ergodicity : Ergodic processes (in our new technical use of the term) are those that resist the terrible and universal Second Law of Thermodynamics, which commands the increase of chaos and entropy (disorder). Without violating that inviolable law overall, ergodic processes reduce the entropy locally, producing pockets of cosmos and negative entropy (order and information-rich structures).
https://www.informationphilosopher.com/ ... icity.html

Enformy : In the Enformationism theory, Enformy is a hypothetical, holistic, metaphysical, natural trend or force, that counteracts Entropy & Randomness to produce complexity & progress.
http://blog-glossary.enformationism.info/page8.html

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussi ... of-history

Stephen Jay Gould raised this question with respect to the history of life on Earth. He supported the "butterfly effect" view: replay the tape of evolution, and due to the accumulation of contingencies, life would most likely go on a different path, and there would probably not be anything like the human species. Others, including another eminent paleontologist Simon Conway Morris, took the opposing "ergodic" view: convergent evolution would lead to similar, if not exactly the same forms developing, assuming the environment is roughly the same. — SophistiCat

In my personal Enformationism thesis, I hold to a synthesis of both views (BothAnd). Most materialist scientists & philosophers, assume that randomness (chaos) and Entropy are the dominant forces in evolution. But, if that were the case, the human species would be astronomically unlikely to emerge (e.g. billion to one odds). Yet, other eminent researchers & theorists have observed the recent rapid pace of evolution --- since Life, with its novel function Mind, emerged from eons of incremental physical & chemical aggregations --- and have concluded that logically there must be some kind of counter-balancing (Ergodic) force that serves to bring order out of chaos. IOW, thermodynamics has a thermostat.

In my view, that organizing force, which I call Enformy, offsets the disorganizing force of Entropy, but only in a precious few pockets of biological and psychological phenomena. In fact, out of the whole universe, the only known examples of anti-entropy are right here on the "pale blue dot". Ironically, in this otherwise insignificant corner of the Cosmos, Physical Evolution has given birth to Cultural Evolution, which is accelerating at a neck-snapping pace, compared to the previous billions of years of Natural Evolution. As far as we know, only here on Earth is evolution being influenced by human intentions. Which makes us co-creators of the emerging universe. And which may indicate that the sudden appearance of conscious beings is not an accident, but an important phase of an overall plan with some higher hidden purpose, as presumed by meaning-seekers over several millennia.

So it seems that the Butterfly Effect has been in charge of creating minimal order out of Chaos up until now. And from here on out, Ergodic processes, including human ententions will be in charge of directing the progression of Evolution. Toward what end, you well might ask? I dunno, I could frankly answer. That's the perennial mystery of life, for curious humans who woke up in the middle of an ongoing story that fades into the barely remembered Past, and a future that can only be known by turning a page each day. Which perhaps indicates that the ultimate Author only wrote the outline, and left it to us characters to improvise the details. In that case, the meaning of your life will be written by you (the actor), instinctively or rationally (Ergodically) responding to the unpredictable surprises of the Butterfly Effect..


Enformy : causal Energy plus directional Entention
http://blog-glossary.enformationism.info/page8.html