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What is probability?

What, conceptually, is probability? — denis yamunaque

The word "probability" was derived from the concept of a provable postulate or prediction. An un-provable prediction is an opinion with no testable grounds for belief. Such prophecies must be taken on faith in the soothsayer, not on any objective evidence pointing to a normal future state. Hence, the prediction may rely on the small possibility of abnormal events (black swans) or miracles (divine intervention).

Conceptually, a highly probable event doesn't have to be taken on faith, it's almost certain. But the lower the probability, the more faith is required for belief. For example, the likelihood of a tornado hitting my home may seem remote, but if the weather forecaster has a good record of reliability, you'd be wise to take his word for it, and prepare to take shelter.

Mathematical probability is a numerical evaluation of the odds that the future state predicted can be tested and found true. As a practical method, probability theory derives its power from the stability of the "normal" Bell Curve behavior of large numbers of relevant objects or trials. In other words, we predict the future based upon past experience. But, the flaw in that theory is the small probability of Black Swans, that don't conform to the Norm. Some people interpret such rare events as miracles, because their minuscule probability is hard to calculate. Nevertheless, we can still retro-compute the probability after the fact ; after the evidence has been found ; after the event has "come to pass".

The law of large numbers is a principle of probability according to which the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out, given enough trials or instances. As the number of experiments increases, the actual ratio of outcomes will converge on the theoretical, or expected, ratio of outcomes.
https://whatis.techtarget.com/definitio ... ge-numbers

Black Swan theory : 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Beloved Weatherman : https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... a-tornado/

True Prophets : Make predictions that “come to pass” (Jeremiah 28:9)
When a prophet speaks in the name of the Lord, if the word does not come to pass or come true, that is a word that the Lord has not spoken; the prophet has spoken it presumptuously. You need not be afraid of him. (Deuteronomy 18:20-22)
Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God, for many false prophets have gone out into the world. (1 John 4:1-6)

Well, it's an awkward question, but, what in fact is probability? — denis yamunaque

Humans have an advantage over most animals, in that we can imagine the near future, and prepare to make our next move, before the future actually arrives. Most animals deal with unexpected events with automatic knee-jerk reflexes. Which serves them well, in their narrow niche of the tooth & claw jungle. But humans have created a variety of artificial niches to suit diverse specialized needs and preferences. Consequently, our "asphalt jungle" is even more complex & chaotic, and rapidly changing, than the natural habitat of other animals.

That may be why we were forced to supplement our basic animal survival instincts, with formal methods for more accurately predicting the moving targets of the future. Ancient prophecy was merely educated guessing, based on direct experience from past events and trends. But humans also learned to create abstract mathematical models of how the world works. And Probability Theory eventually emerged, ironically from Game Theory, based on long experience with gambling competitions, to give those-in-the-know an advantage over other players. For example, a card game is an abstract simulation of real-world social situations. If you can "count cards" you will have a better idea of what hand your opponent is holding, and what his next move might be. Hence, when such unknowns can be reduced to number values they can be manipulated more quickly & accurately than the nebulous social values of human communities : e.g is he bluffing?.

Therefore, what we now call "Probability" is essentially a formalized form of intuition or foresight. It allows us to calculate what is normally-to-be-expected in a well-defined situation. Hence, It gives us an edge in dealing with the unnatural exigencies of the complicated civilized world of cunning thinking animals, and with the unfamiliar uncertainties of the natural world. Probability Theory is "in fact" a new tool, like teeth & claws, for humans to use in the high-stakes game of survival. Unfortunately, Probability is still not a perfect form of Prognostication.


There are three major types of probabilities:
Theoretical Probability.
Experimental Probability.
Axiomatic Probability.